As the NFL season draws to a close, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs will clash in what promises to be a thrilling Super Bowl showdown. Both teams have dominated the 2024-2025 season, but only one can emerge as the champion.
The Chiefs are the crowd favorite this year, and Austin Peay State University football coach Jeff Faris is among those backing them.
“I think the Chiefs are going to win because I would never bet against Patrick Mahomes,” said Faris.
But as a statistics graduate of Austin Peay State University, I’m here to tell you that you should. Here’s why:
The Eagles’ Offense vs. The Chiefs’ Defense
The Philadelphia Eagles have had a dynamic season, scoring 766 points across 17 games. The Kansas City Chiefs, by comparison, have scored 711 points, giving the Eagles a higher points-per-game (PPG) average of 27, compared to the Chiefs’ 23 PPG. These numbers suggest that the Eagles have a stronger offensive game than the Chiefs.
While both teams are close defensively, the Eagles hold a slight edge again. They have allowed only 303 points this season, meaning opposing teams score an average of 18 points per game against them. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up 326 points, with opposing teams averaging 19 points per game against their defense.
These numbers suggest equal defensive performances; however, a closer look at their losses paints a more precise picture of how Sunday’s game could play out.
The Loss Factor: A Key Indicator
The Eagles’ average losing margin is just seven points, meaning they tend to keep games close even in defeat. On the other hand, the Chiefs have lost only twice this season, but those losses were by significantly larger margins: nine points in one game and a staggering 38 points in another.
This average suggests that while the Chiefs may have more wins, they are more vulnerable to being blown out when they lose. If the Eagles conduct a strong offensive game plan, they could take full advantage of this weakness and overwhelm the game.
A Blowout on the Horizon?
To determine whether a blowout victory (a win by more than 10 points) is likely, I analyzed each team’s scoring trends using standard deviation (SD)—a measure of how much a team’s performance varies from game to game.
- Eagles’ PPG standard deviation: 8.76
- Chiefs’ PPG standard deviation: 7.92
These numbers mean the Eagles’ scoring fluctuates more than the Chiefs’. Using this data, we can estimate the probability of either team exceeding their average performance by more than 10 points.
Assuming a normal distribution, the probability of a team outperforming their mean by one SD is 15.87% per game. If a team surpasses this by more than two SDs, the probability drops to 2.28%.
However, when we analyze historical trends and apply Z-scores, the likelihood of either team winning by more than 10 points is projected to be between 92% and 96%, which means that unless both teams perform close to their season averages, the game will likely end in a dominant win for the stronger team on game day.
Other Factors to Consider
Of course, statistics can only predict so much. Other unpredictable factors will influence the game’s outcome, such as early mistakes that could dictate the momentum, injuries affecting key players, team morale and coaching decisions, not to mention other stats that I didn’t add to my model, such as player averages and previous performances in head-to-head matchups.
Prediction: A Blowout is Coming
While both teams have strong cases for victory, the numbers suggest that whoever gains the upper hand early will likely secure a dominant win. If the Eagles execute their offensive strategy effectively, which they likely will, they have a higher chance of becoming this year’s champion. One thing is certain—this Super Bowl is sure to be one for the history books.
