Super Bowl 2026 is here, and unlike many championship games, there is no clear favorite between this year’s teams, the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams have similar average scores and the same defensive efficiency.
As a graduate student at Austin Peay State University studying Computer Science and Quantitative Methods with a concentration in Predictive Analytics, I took it upon myself to crunch the numbers. A careful review of the statistical scoring evidence reveals that the Seahawks and Patriots have reacted quite differently under adverse conditions. Here is what my calculations show:
Gathering the Data
I started this project by tracking team performance on both ends using points scored per game, points allowed per game, and total game points, and next, dividing the total points across all games to get the average. This method allowed me to create two tables: a win-by-table and a loss-by-table. Both tables demonstrate how a team performs during game moments when it has control and when it does not.
The win-by and loss-by-table were efficient for last year’s calculations, when the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles went head to head. Although the Chiefs were the favorites, the loss-by-table showed that when they lost, it was a blowout. When the Eagles took the lead in that game, they won by more than 10 points, exactly as we predicted.
Overall Performance Shows Little Difference
In total, across all 17 games played this season, the Patriots have averaged 29 offensive points, while the away team has averaged about 19 points against them. Not too different from Seattle, which managed 28, while their opponents also scored about 17. This stat indicates dominance; these two teams generally score a lot and prevent their opponents from scoring on them. In performance, both teams are relatively equal.
Wins Reveal the Difference, and Losses Reinforce the Same Pattern
The separation appears when we focus only on wins. In victories, the Patriots averaged roughly 31 points on offense while allowing about 17 points on defense. The Seahawks averaged just under 30 points in wins but allowed closer to 15. While the Patriots score slightly more when they win, the Seahawks give up fewer points and do so more consistently.
Defensive performance in wins matters because it reflects how well a team protects a lead and closes games. Offense can fluctuate due to late-game strategy or game flow. Defense tends to be more stable. In that category, Seattle holds the edge.
Loss-only data support the same conclusion.
When the Seahawks lose, the margins are smaller. When the Patriots lose, the margins widen slightly. That suggests the Seahawks are less volatile and better able to remain competitive in a single-game championship, where mistakes become magnified, recovery time is limited, and adaptability matters.
Measuring Confidence
Averages alone do not account for uncertainty, so I used confidence intervals to estimate the reliability of these differences. A confidence interval represents the range in which a team’s true average performance is likely to fall, accounting for natural variation and sample size. With both teams having a similar number of wins, the comparison is fair.
The Seahawks allowed an average of approximately 15.4 points per win, while the Patriots allowed about 17.4. Each team had 14 wins, giving both samples the same number of wins. Game-to-game defensive results in the NFL typically vary by roughly six points, which provides a reasonable estimate of standard deviation for this type of data.
I used the standard error formula to calculate the uncertainty around each average, which divides the estimated variation by the square root of the number of games. In this case, dividing six by the square root of 14 produces a standard error of about 1.6 points.
To construct a 95% confidence interval, multiply the standard error by 1.96 and add and subtract the result from the average. For the Patriots, this yields an interval of roughly 14.3 to 20.6 points allowed in wins. For the Seahawks, the interval ranges from approximately 12.3 to 18.6 points.
Statistically, this supports a moderate-confidence conclusion rather than a guaranteed outcome. Based on the data, I am roughly 60 to 65% confident that the Seahawks’ defensive advantage is real.
Final Verdict
One thing to note is that my analysis does not suggest the Seahawks will dominate this game. The calculations are too close for me to dismiss the Patriots. The data shows that across the season, the Seahawks demonstrated a slightly stronger ability to control games defensively when winning and to limit damage when losing.
Based on the numbers alone, the Seattle Seahawks enter the Super Bowl 2026 with the statistical edge. My final verdict is that the Seattle Seahawks take the championship in a very tight and entertaining game against the New England Patriots.
