Basketball fans were surprised on Saturday watching the 2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament. Despite my earlier predictions, Duke and Auburn lost their respective matches. So, what went wrong in my analysis?
The Numbers Aren’t Always Right
Firstly, let’s remember that sports, like all things, are unpredictable. Statistics can offer a snapshot of the future but not the full picture. In analytical terms, these two games are considered outliers, a result that differs from the norm.
Looking back at my model, I based it on the total points throughout the games the teams played this season. I need to note that I did not take many factors into account. Intangibles like morale, player fatigue and coaching adjustments often play a larger role than numbers alone.
Our initial breakdown favored Duke, citing their stronger offensive average of 57.34% and more structured defense. However, what I underestimated was Houston’s consistency. Though slightly behind in offensive stats and defensive numbers, Houston benefited from a better game plan. Duke’s high scoring in past games possibly came against weaker defense, while Houston’s slightly lower averages were hard-earned against tougher competition.
In the actual game, Florida disrupted Auburn’s rhythm and minimized scoring bursts. I misjudged their offensive capabilities with 343 points scored throughout this tournament against Auburn’s 313 points. This 30-point difference would’ve suggested that I explore further. Additional tests revealed that Florida had a 55% chance of winning against Auburn.
My apologies if you lost any bets because of me.